CrisisMesh News data, documents, video.

North Korea has done exactly what they said the would and detonated a nuclear weapon at 01:36GMT. Seismic data back the claim.

I get the feeling North Korea doesn’t like being out of the headlines, and certainly didn’t like the mockery and perceived failure of their Taepo Dong 2 launch vehicle in July. Information about the DPRK nuclear program is usually vague and scant, but most analysts agree they’ve probably have enough enriched nuclear material to make a handful of nuclear weapons (whether they have the expertise to strap it onto the end of an ICBM is more debatable). So now the DPRK has announced that it is about to conduct a nuclear test, not giving a time or place, just saying it’s going to happen. This particular incident was speculated about over a month ago by ABC US, and another test was rumored in 2004 by the New York Times [registration required]. I’m speculating here, but this one sound like a go (unless it fails, and then they pretend they didn’t try anything).
So, how is the DPRK going to detonate a nuclear weapon in such a small country? For that we turn to FAS, quoting an analysis by Satoshi Morimoto of Takushoku University.

“…carrying out nuclear tests inside North Korea would be an extremely sticky action. That is because this kind of nuclear testing could only be carried out underground. There is absolutely no way they could do in the air or above ground. Even with underground nuclear testing, you normally need a fifty to sixty kilometer square of desert for a nuclear test. In the U.S., this would be something like the Nevada desert. Unless you have the kind they have in India or Pakistan, you cannot do it. The reason for this is that the underground water system gets damaged. North Korea has a very abundant flow of underground water, and if you carry out an underground nuclear test in this kind of place, radioactive materials would get into the water supply for the whole of the Korean peninsula, and also flow out into the Sea of Japan. As a consequence, if there were any underground nuclear testing in the Korean peninsula, it would not be just the ecological system, but also the topography of the land that would be damaged.”

So, you can’t test it above ground and below ground is tricky. The author goes on to speculate that they may borrow a lump of desert from Pakistan, but I can’t see that happening. They want to keep their head down and stay on the good side of the US.

In military terms, a nuclear DPRK would be a very difficult beast to deal with. A regional arms race? Japan and South Korea are certainly not going to be happy about this. Pre-emptive action? The US military is overstretched as it is and isn’t going to invade unless their hand is really forced. Simply sending in the bombers to attack nuclear program targets would probably result in North Korea sending a massive volley of artillery into South Korea, which may even be the thing that forces America’s hand. Military action is probably out, and plain old diplomacy, sanctions and stalemates are where we end up.

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?